Thanks hvacgeek (and good to hear from you again). I obviously...

Thanks hvacgeek (and good to hear from you again). I obviously can't foretell the future but this was the gist of my thinking before buying more in the recent Placement.

My own assessment
I have posted many times since mid 2020 about this wonderful story. It continues to derisk as it rapidly approaches production, doing everything that I would reasonably expect, and more, to achieve its goals. I am very comfortable that the Placement cost will make money. I love their values but ultimately I'm investing to make a quid;

Smart and successful friends
I have friends, each very savvy and some of whom have added, in this Placement, big chunks ($ 7 figures) to their already large holdings. They can't guarantee the future either but they see it as being a smart use of their money - and make no mistake - none of them likes losing money! They and I are each opinionated and form our own views - but we all feel the same way and are not inclined to breathe each other's exhausts. Let's hope we're right ...

Alster Report $22
The updated Alster Report price is $22, as I recall. I didn't go through it to see whether that was for right now or what the criteria were because I was comfortable enough with my decision anyway. But they'd know better than me, and if that's a right now price then it adds to my view that there's very good upside once the Placement (and to a much, much lesser extent SP) have been digested.

Tremendous upside in the sectorSector upside remains high, given the grossly undersupplied lithium market for the foreseeable future. With this cap. raising apparently being done to "Accelerate, Expand, Derisk" production (as per today's insightful Post#: 56341207 from GT3loui),Vulcan's future EPS should be enhanced by lower unit costs of production and improved margins and revenue.

More offtakes
Additional to sector upside is Vulcan upside. Again from GT3loui's excellent post: "Probably the reason the Stellantis deal, the worst kept secret in the lithium sector, has taken so long to announce, and the elusive German offtake, that we thought HAD to come.I mean, how can a future German lithium producer, the biggest in Europe, listed in Frankfurt, not supply a German manufacturer???...".

Powerful logic. My guess is that if there already is a non-binding MOU in place, Vulcan would very responsibly not have made an ASX release because:
(a) they would not want to contribute to speculation (started by others) about a non-binding deal, and
(b) in finalising negotiations on the way through to converting to a binding offtake agreement you can't be caught in having to report material changes on a blow by blow basis to the ASX. That would cause speculation and generally just be a cluster. So you shut up to avoid adding to hype - until there is something binding and disclosable;
(c) it surely be a breach of any non-binding agreement to release anything to the ASX unless required by law to do so.

Pressure is on the buyers, not on Vulcan
Given the grossly under-supplied lithium market, another legally binding offtake could arrive quite soon. When that occurs Vulcan of course will make an ASX release. There will be considerable pressure on the large battery makers/users to sign up to get supply secured from Vulcan because of its:
(i) perfectly located supply, near industry in Germany;
(ii) highly attractive Zero Carbon product;
(iii) likely security of supply - coming from the largest lithium resource in Europe, not shipped from the other side of the world.
Frequent reports nowadays of DLE successes in various test labs etc. add further assurance to Vulcan's approach, which has already proved itself on a pilot plant basis.

Charting
On many occasions Vulcan's stock has turned on a dime after a pullback and surged powerfully after periods of consolidation. Typically there is little or no warning. I've posted before about some Vulcan chart features here:
Post #: 46223717 on 31 July 2020
Post #: 48546395 on 30 October 2020
Post #: 48645673 on 4 Nov 2020
Post #: 49055836 on 22 Nov 2020
Post #: 55569639 on 25 August 2020. The stock is still in the "coiling up" (like a spring) consolidation zone that I referred to on that chart.

Surely it's not the last time in the world when Vulcan will surge after a retracement/consolidation. And if it takes longer than I expect - then we'll be that little bit closer to production, so the project NPV will be that little bit higher, too. Which triggered another thought ...

Funding

As the Project nears startup, and given that grossly undersupplied lithium market conditions are forecast to continue until well after that, all kinds of investors are likely to want to lend capital to the Project. We may be very pleasantly surprised how much debt funding will be readily available to Vulcan on attractive terms. If so, there may be surprisingly few opportunities in future to buy shares in capital raisings on the ASX. Which triggered another thought ...

Full listing in Germany

When Vulcan achieves its main listing in Germany I expect that to attract some very powerful buying - not just from funds (including sovereign wealth funds) but potentially chemical companies and the like. There's a lot of money in that part of the world, and plenty will be looking for investment in this sector. If Vulcan does raise a lot of its future capital requirements through debt - as will become increasingly attractive as production approaches - on-market buying of existing stock could lift the share price very significantly.

Yep, looks very attractive to me around these levels...