VVA and COVID-19 Restrictions

Afternoon all,

Having had a better look at the report over the last day or two I noticed that whilst total locations were up (largely based on acquisition of Plus Fitness) club lime branded clubs had been forecasted to drop from 39 to 30 and HIIT republic gyms from 22 to 18 over the period of Jul 21 to Aug 21. Does anyone know why this is the case, especially as the margins on HIIT Republic were the ones that really stood out to me and served as a great rival to F45 in the future?

Also, has anyone done the calculations as to how far the capital raise will take the company throughout this continual lockdown? Listening to Andrew Barr this morning it is of my strong opinion that the ACT will stay in an extended lockdown and he now is taking the approach of NSW with a focus on vaccinations as the key to opening back up. His comments were that 70% vaccination rates were not enough and that above 80% and even into the 90% area will we then only be able to enjoy a lot more comforts and luxuries of 'normal life'. When do all of you see the clubs being able to open back up? Are we going to have to wait for a certain % of vaccinations to occur? At this stage, both the ACT and NSW still remain below 40% of population fully vaccinated.

"The most recent target from the government is in its Operation Covid Shield document, which suggests vaccinating 80% of the population aged 16 and over should be possible by December. The federal government has also set vaccination targets of 70% and 80% of the population aged 16 and over as the thresholds for phase B and phase C of its ‘National Plan to transition Australia’s National COVID-19 Response’ – essentially when it expects restrictions to ease, with reduced lockdowns and opening up of borders."

Even if we reach this target, States are now coming out and saying that the 'National Road Map' created by the Commonwealth Government does not sit well with the individual states, so even if we reach these numbers, States still control their jurisdictions and can keep restrictions in place as they feel necessary.

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/ng-interactive/2021/aug/30/covid-19-vaccine-rollout-australia-vaccination-rate-progress-how-many-people-vaccinated-percent-tracker-australian-states-number-total-daily-live-data-stats-updates-news-schedule-tracking-chart-percentage-new-cases-today

In my opinion, the way gyms have been treated in the past will see them being one of the last places able to open back up, regardless of statistics suggesting the spread of C19 being lower in gyms than other settings. I assume once gyms can open back up there will be a requirement for patrons to wear masks, which I envisage will deter a few people from unfreezing their membership until such restrictions reside.

"Analysis of COVID-19 transmission cases within Australia has identified just 5 confirmed cases of COVID-19 transmission within Australian gyms since the beginning of the pandemic 18 months ago. This low transmission rate has been observed despite an estimated 40 million+ check-ins at Australian fitness facilities over this time, with similar figures being observed overseas. In comparison, data from other sectors has shown hundreds of confirmed transmission cases spanning almost every state and territory, especially in hospitality where transmission is five times more likely, yet these businesses have been allowed to re-open and begin trading under modified conditions".https://fitness.org.au/articles/most-recent/why-are-nt-gyms-still-closed/50/2291/184

Lastly, having a look on the ACT COVID-19 Business Support page it looks as if VVA will not qualify for any form of government support (in the ACT). I haven't had a look at other states but I imagine it is something similar.

https://www.act.gov.au/business/business-support/covid-19-economic-support-for-business

All thoughts and conversation appreciated.