Interesting news. I have two takeaways after reading the article:
- Short term, I'd expect that the share price will probably retreat a little as people trade down the news on an "alternative treatment"
- The numbers given in the trials are at the lower end of our projections for mortality in the control cohort, so this makes me much less confident about halting the trial for overwhelming efficacy at the first readout. The death rate they specified was 33% for patients on steroids, which is actually a few % below the conservative estimates I had performed.
Doesn't change too much on the long-term prospects for Mesoblast, and it's good news for the world, but it's bad news imo for the short term share price.
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