w000t wednesday, page-52

So it appears that this rally (XJO/XAO) has halted (for now) short of the 38.2 fib - though SPI was pumped up to about the 50 fib. However what does it suggest if SPI was pumped this morning to the 50 fib but XAO/XJO couldn't even make the 38.2 fib??

So is this just a rest stop and we now retrace back to a fib and consolidate as Robbbb suggested? Maybe, but I'm not really convinced.

A 38.2 fib rally is bearish and if it fails to hold old support levels, I'd now suggest the next low could be approx XAO 3050. This could be a/the retest of the low around Robbb's 5th Dec date.

The lower bollinger on the XAO/XJO daily has not yet curled underneath so its unlikely IMO we'll get a big rally now. We might get the start of a rally - ie mostly a sideways move during Dec - and possibly hold the lows - but a decent rally probably won't begin until the bollingers squeeze in around late-December.

Eg. With BHP back at $28 and its lower daily bollinger at $21 there is decent downside to XAO there if it retests the lower band.

Now in terms of the Friday close, on the XAO monthly, I've been thinking of a Nov close of either 3425ish or 3000. However, with US holidays in the interim, a monthly close around 3000 seems unlikely, so perhaps we hold 3425 into month-end?

Still too many questions for me to be convinced we've had our low I'm afraid. IMO there is probably about another month to get set for a big rally in the early part of next year.