nice posts re charting...hotcopper needs more of this type of...

nice posts re charting...hotcopper needs more of this type of input in2 all the mid-cap n quasi bluechip tradeables

Anyways, its very inportant to keep in mind that there was a major and obvious FUNDAMENTAL driver behind the breakout and major GAP in late march and you can clearly see the massive volume that went thru at the time of the annoucement re trading profit update

In light of this, imo this GAP between at 18.70 serves as a major major SUPPORT point just in case the markets plunge back to the bottom of their range a few hundred points lower

this is just my opinion, and i say this bcoz that GAP had a major fundamental analysis reason behind it backed with the mass volume

The ALTERNATIVE view (from a pure technical point) is that there MAY be a quick pullback bounce off 18.70 on any major down day if the chart keeps edging lower towards 19.00.

For e.g, if the chart edges slowly towards 19.00, one day 19.00 can break and thus technical traders would obviously 'short' the stock to 18.70 and then quickly close the short.

BUT, again, if we include FUNDAMENTALS, the AUSSIE DOLLAR is booming with an imminint blowout top at 1.10, then maybe a pullback and consolidatio

So the fundamentals are keepoing it from closing the gap i guess - STRONGER AUD with a clear breakout of $1.00 now ans a move towards 1.10 is GREAT for JB-HI-FI in terms of margins! The demand for dvds and cds is pretty inelastic too if interest rates go up (heck kids and teens aint gonna stop buying dvds and cds that cost a measley 10-15bucks due to higher rates; Young adults that dont have mortgages are still gonna buy laptops, ipads, iphones, ipdads; Big ticket items may suffer demand wise tho like tvs LEDS, LCDs , plasmas etc....but here JB can lower prices and still retain old margins if demand slows...so the higher AUD is a big PLUS!

Yes, ppl can buy laptops, ipads, iphones and big ticket items from the internet for cheaper...but who does this?? Students, ppl in the 20-early 30s age range maybe. MOST ppl still just buy from JB of Harvey norman or bing lee etc their electricals as you get LONGER WARRANTIES than u do on the internet PLUS you get all the FAVOURABLE FINANCING (GE cards that allow you 50 months interest free paying pricipal off at 10-15 bucks a week on a tv over 50 months etc)

The savvy internet consumer thingo is relevant to maybe less than 10% of consumers - - older mature consumers want warranties, and customer care just in case they need to return faulty items etc

SO IN THE END FUNDAMENTALLY I CAN SEE WHY THIS STOCK SHOULD PULLBACK

TECHNICALLY, I GUESS THE CHARTISTS NEED THAT GAP CLOSED asap SO THAT NEW HIGHS COULD BE MADE

FUNDAMENTALLY THO, ITS TOO STRONG

I PREDICT A MOVE TOWARDS 22BUCKS + OVER TIME BARRING A MAJOR ECONOMIC COLLAPSE OR MAJOR DOWNTURN OR PROFIT DOWNGRADE

18.70 IS THE EXTREME LOWEST SUPPORT ON A MASSIVE PULLBACK IMO AS FUNDAMENTALLY THE STOCK IS TOO STRONG; IF IT DOES GO TO 18.70 PURELY BASED ON TECHNICAlS, ITLL BE FOR A FEW MOMENTS AND THEN A BOUNCE IF THE STOCK KEEPS EDGING DOWN TOWARDS 19.00.

OTHER THAN THAT, ITS LOOKING GOOD MEDIUM TO LONG TERM