wa election antony green latest, page-7

hanrahan - maybe when the National Party garnered a higher vote and a tight exchange of preferences was crucial to the Coalition.

These days the Nats get a very small perecntage and there's a very high chance they'd preference the Libs. Mavericks like Katter and PUP are an unknown quantity and who knows what those who vote for them would do.

My point is that Labor is being tailed by the Greens more closely. Neither could ever govern in their own right and as the Greens generally trail, and as Greens' voters tend to be more -shall we say - zealots, who don't countenance contrary views, I believe that a high percentage of Greens voters would just choose "1" leaving Labor like a shag on a rock. If Labor cannot win, that leaves only one alternative depending on other preferences.

I'd be surprised if the Liberal Party have not had mathematicians, statisticians and psephologists modelling this already. The Coalition is the only side currently that can be elected in its own right, so exploit it! After a few election cycles as the minor fringe dwellers exert less influence ie Greens, Katter, PUP, then the lesson from the Democrats experience is that support for them would dwindle.

This would mean, probably, a return to the former status quo of a virtual two Party scenario but I am happy with that. I believe that provides Australia's best governance when fringe dwellers are dealt out.