Having read the interim report, there is very little...

Having read the interim report, there is very little significant guidance in relation to onshore export.And what there is is not strong.

IMHO the best chance of a good result is if MIN maintains its position that unless it can export it won’t produce.That will force the issue as they’ll be dealing with tough guy Ellison-who might tell them to fk off.

In my view without Chris Ellison this process will get nowhere.

The vast bulk of the report has really focused on compliance/non compliance with the current policy with minor consideration of allowing onshore export.

Chapters 4 & 5 are the main ones.

Paragraph 4.7 refers to the premier indicating that the onshore ban could be reviewed with a decision mid 24.

4.17- Woodside refers to the onshore producers and their importance to the LNG trains.

With any luck, Woodside might be a particularly interested party in any change to the policy.

Great if they could compete for STX.

4.18-asks the central question whether lifting the export ban would in fact produce an amount of additional gas.

4.19 says there is no evidence that has been received that changing the current 100% percent reservation would unlock gas.

Then oddly at 4.21 the committees is of the view that there is a possibility that allowing onshore producers to export could address a shortfall.

Who knows how they got to that-but its encouraging.

Its this inability to point to why lifting the ban increases domestic gas that is the worry.Alcoa argued it wouldn’t

At 4.23 considers that the reservation might need to be greater than 15%.

At 4.25 it says that if the government is to adopt this approach and allow ‘SOME’ onshore producers….

What does that mean.

Chapter 5 refers to possible market interventions.

At 5.3. The committee states that an industry lead solution is preferable to government intervention – whatever that means.

At 5.4 states that while the current policy stops the gas being exported, it’s objective of ensuring that gas is available domestically will not be realised if the reserved gas sits in the reservoir unsold, despite there being domestic demand.

-------that is the Ellison position.

At 5.18 there’s reference to the industry lead solution, however the report does not say/clarify much in my view.

5.37 refers to the permitting of onshore producers to export LNG.The paragraph says nothing and refers back to Ch 4.

5.38 says it is not clear how much more gas this intervention would make available.Again this is a concern.

At 5.85, there’s a discussion about changing the domestic market obligation for future projects, that is a percentage greater than 15%.