Some good points in this discussion.
Obviously, the Malaysian government, and the Malaysian Greens will read the statement that Australia will not take back the LYC waste, and they will then think, " ... if Australia won't take it back, then it must be harmful, so why should we be made to keep it ... "
It's likely now that Malaysia will stall for time, you know politicians, playing both sides. They will talk with LYC and plead for them to find an alternative solution, firstly so they can keep the plant and the jobs in Malaysia (and win votes), and secondly so they don't need to keep the waste (so they can win votes) - this would be the best possible solution for a Malaysian politician.
It's very regrettable that this has become a political football now.
Is there any other nation who would accept the waste, for a larger than normal fee? Probably. Think the usual dumping grounds, like poor African nations. Maybe Sudan if you throw their government a few million to continue their military campaigns. You know how this all works.
But really, at the end of the day, and (actually) back in the day, LYC was given permission to store their waste in Australia in a reserved area out toward the goldfields if I am not mistaken, but they decided to go with building the plant in Malaysia (for some reason), and now it's come home to bite them. There own fault and lack of business vision, and their excessive greed.
There is only one (1) realistic long term solution. Negotiate with the WA Govt to bring the plant back to Australian soil, including the setting aside of an area for the waste (perhaps the original area).
LYC are dithering, and vacillating, and being undecided, and cutesy, and hopeless.
Like I said when this first became an issue (again, and again) some months back, you immediately cut and get out of Malaysia.
LYC just needs to have the balls to be decisive, and to get some strong leadership, instead of this management weakness.
There are some managers who are great when things are going well, but when the shite hits the fan and there needs to be strong decisive decisions made, they go missing, they go to water, or just sit there hoping things will turn out ok. Let me tell you from 30 years experience - they won't.
Do what you gotta do now, and stop piddling around.
For goodness sake LYC, make the decision now, be stronger, and stand up to the Malaysian politicians and their Green allies.
One problem (for shareholders) with this now is the share price, it's way overvalued simply because of sovereign risk. It depends on the factorial weight that different funds apply to sovereign risk in their algorithm profiles, but some of them will be significantly downgrading LYC.
It's simple really - accept the short-term hit, stuff the Malaysian govt, get a JV partner, get the plant here, negotiate with the WA govt - all done.
LYC just needs to stop being in denial, stop pissing around, stop talking and wasting everyone's time, stop respecting politicians, and just get it done. End of Story.
Gw
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