of course they go up and down... that's pointing out the...

of course they go up and down... that's pointing out the bleeding obvious isn't it. The skill isn't in seeing a stock that has gone up a lot and suggesting it may go down because it has gone up and nothing goes up forever ... it is identifying the ones that will overcome the blips and continue to rise.

Most traders don't have the judgement (or back their judgement) to work out what a company should or could be worth... so they use lines on a chart and rules written by others to tell them what to do. Good luck if that works, the same as good luck to tea leaves, dart throwing and any other desired method that may or may not work out.

But the real money is made by identifying a stock that is undervalued/underappreciated by the market, where the macro conditions will likely be favourable, where the proposition is highly unique (and therefore competitors almost non existent), where the news-flow will keep the markets attention and not let it be bored for long, where the negatives can be overcome without too much negative impact, where the unknowns are reasonably expected to be favourable outcomes when they are known, where confidence that the management will execute is high (and where they are motivated financially enough to make the right decisions for smaller holders), where the capital structure minimises predators or shorters complicating the story... and where the short, medium and long-term upside is enormous and the downside is limited (ie somewhat de-risked).

All of these are present here... and in quantities I don't think you will see hardly ever. It is a generational discovery and situation.

But of course aside from just finding a stock with all of the above, you also have to battle the courage of your own convictions when others (for reasons they only know) decide to exit and alter the short term course of the price or spam stock boards to try rattle peoples faith out of jealousy, ignorance, sinisterness or regret. Add in the fact that when a portfolio value goes up most people count that as their new wealth level and find it extremely hard to palate it going backwards (even if they think it is short term)... and you can see that making a tonne of money is not easy. Nor should it be.