Hey @seb777Im not sure what time zone you are in Whether this is...

Hey @seb777

Im not sure what time zone you are in
Whether this is a late night quick approximation type of post and that you are being carried on hubris .
What you are writting is pretty confusing ...

at 8.05 Paul asks the rhetorial question
" what if the Araxa niobium supply is turned off "





I have listened to Noosa November 2023.
about 10 times now ...

My understanding from around the 8 minute mark in that presentation is

April 2011 |- Japanese consortium paid 1.8 Billion US for 15% of CBMM for offtake ( no voting rights) in slide but reports are slightly higher
at 1.95 B uS ..
ttps://www.e-mj.com/news/latin-america/japan-korea-partnership-investing-195-billion-in-brazils-cbmm/

September 6th 2011 - Chinese consortium paid 1.95 Billion US for 15% CBMM for offtake ( no voting rights) agrees with reports
https://en.mercopress.com/2011/09/06/chinese-consortium-acquires-15-of-world-s-largest-niobium-producer-in-brazil

What Paul did not explicitly say is
3.9 billion at 30% suggest the whole of CBMM is 13 billion US in 2011
the AUD to US conversion rate average was 1.03 for 2011 with a low around 0.95 so for ease of calc
lets please agree that value of CBMM in 2011 was 13 billion AUD ...through put 66 kt

the exact calculation or assumptions that Paul Savich uses to
get to 30 Billion AUD as an estimate for 11/2024 of CBMM with through put of 100 kt is not known

I could say that with the eroding AUD to US being $1.51 AUD to 1US .

So in table form the valuations would look like this from the Presentation I have seen

		valuation USBillion	throughput Nbkts	kts/Bill ratio	aud/US	AUD valuation Bil
1	2011	13.0	66	5.1	1.0	13
2	2023	19.7	100	5.1	1.5	29.545

Paul Is an Certified Accountant . He would have to have a basis and assumptions to pronounce that $ 30 billion number AUD in public .
I think what he is saying is entirely plausible .

Seb777
Could you advise where do you get a "40 billion" Araxa valuation from for 2011 ? I would really like to use it if its true.
What basis do you use to extrapolate to "80 billion AUD in 2024 ?