Yeah, interesting proposition. I had thought about that as well, but I started thinking along these lines.
US set to do another round of QE from US$1.5 - 3 Trillion. Probably find the larger amount the better for the US. How many companies are suffering worse now than in April/ May? How many loan defaults are likely and how much will the central banks need to prop up the economy?
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...-ever-but-may-not-be-big-enough-idUSKBN21H0E7
https://www.cnet.com/personal-finan...ses-heres-what-you-get-beyond-a-second-check/
So running with 2 scenarios with,
1 being that the global & US economy will crater and hence POG will likely stay high in that sustained period.
Or alternatively, the economy gradually picks up over several years and advances as it did in 2012 after GFC1 as an example. Interest rates went up and inflation picked up. POG of $700-$900/oz prior to GFC1 was never seen again. POG bottomed out around US$1100/oz in 2015 and that was because economies began booming again and the need for central banks holding gold reserves was not as necessary.
Now if you look broadly at Oz based gold miners their AISC ranges from approx US$1000-$1300/oz so margins were being squeezed to almost unprofitable levels. I don't see the POG ever returning to those levels now unless there is deflation globally.
POG went sideways just under $1740/oz for a bit over 2 months and is now a pretty solid base level. I believe that POG will be unlikely to go under that again. If it does there are several other levels of support around the $1550 - $1600 level
So likely WAF directors are taking all of this into consideration and maybe see prices high for a sustained period?
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