They now have cash to last through the wet season, until April just on admin costs and nothing else. They need the legals sorted in their favour so they can get the OXX money and they need the OXX money for seismic so that gets set aside pretty much when/if they get it. Operationally they'll want another CR around feb/march to carry admin costs through the seismic and farm out process but they could do it sooner if BRU drilling causes any excitement.
I'd see the legals as the first catalyst, but not an overly significant one, it removes the uncertainty and the roadblock to the OXX money but hard to see it leaping too much.
If the legals are in OBL's favour to their stated goal of 100% of Derby then I'd guess BRU's conventional drilling could be the next catalyst to bring some excitement back to the SP. Whether any non-Goldwyer drills can happen before Xmas is highly uncertain to say the least but it's possible late this year to some time next year and it's possible anything good at Commodore might bleed over a little although it shouldn't.
If OBL can shoot seismic very early in the dry season then you'd probably have two catalysts mid next year, excitement on BRU's Laurel testing should it go ahead as stated followed shortly by anything the seismic throws up.
There is supposed to be a drill in the ground in 2015 but honestly I'm not entirely sure how achievable that is. It's very rare to get seismic back, farm out AND drill all in a matter of say 5 months.
In the normal course of things you'd say a drill is more likely in 2016 but of course FMG did try and farm in without seismic so it's possible the seismic isn't a precondition like it normally is in the seismic > farm out > drill paradigm and the BRU nearology (and hopefully success) is enough so a farm out is kind of a floating catalyst some time after legal results until late next year, skewing much, much earlier if a drill is actually happening like the commitments had it happening last time I looked. In which case a final catalyst would be a drill pretty late in the year.
I don't think it's really possible for OBL to raise capital for drilling, they just need enough to pay admin costs, their share of the seismic which should come from OXX and the farm in will take care of the rest and likely involve monies for back costs or the farminer paying for a cornerstone equity which would get OBL off the dilution roundabout for a while. Although I'm sure if the Laurel is successful they'll want to CR on the back of that too.
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