***wait for the bullish break!!!, page-6

re: cst gets some press (the age) Some quick back-of-the-envelope calculations based on info from the article.

'Cellestis is aiming for its speedier QuantiFERON-TB Gold test to capture at
least 15 per cent of the US market (about 10 million tests a year) by 2008.

Kits sell for about $US15each, of which small royalties are paid to CSL and a
Danish research institute, and the company's costs are fixed around $5 million a year.'

So 15% of 10 million = 1.5 million tests * $10 (allowing for the royalty to CSL etc) = $15 million.
+ guaranteed $7.5 million in sales from Japan (quoted later in the article).
$22.5 million - $5 million costs = $17.5 million profit before tax etc, should pay no tax for a while
due to accumulated losses, so call it $17.5 million profit.

market cap around $500 million. = 2008 forward pe = $500m/ $17.5m = 28 ish.

not really all that compelling?

Note that I haven't included anything not in the article so I would imagine they have other
markets in other countries. Also its a bit ambiguous in the article whether the whole US market is 10million
tests a year or whether this is 15% of the US market.

I still have the scar on my arm from my TB test in year 9 high school 1980. Anyone else got this? Its the mark of a whole generation.

cheers
toscanunan