Well if it does come to fruition, we'll all look back with your exact sentiment that "the signs are all there". But if all these signs and recent ANN's are so testimonial, why would the SP not budge? Tells me there's a noose around AVB's neck, most obviously in the form of finance. Then again, if this project never gets to mining under the AVB banner, I don't think it will come as much surprise either. I believe AVB could just be acting as Xstrata's HR, rounding up the right folk, until Xstrata take contol and buy AVB/the tenements outright.
Who knows. Without a doubt they're building a boat, but will it sail? Given recent ANNs it'd be hard to do anything but wait and find out..
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