waiting for the penny to maybe drop, page-4

This is Mr Lincoln Augustus, first second cousin of Holymagiman.

Haven’t been sleeping much, seeing as how we have been drinking some drinks through the night that only Holymagiman can make. Most enjoyable and most cooling, if such a word could be applied to a drink that adds fire to the belly and legs to the brain.

So we have been drinking a most enjoyable blend of Appleton rum, papaya juice, a touch of the bitters and a smidjen of the Jamaica numba One Spejil Blend, all mixed to icy perfection, and that has whiled away the night, so that now we can see the daylight creeping in through the shuttered blinds.

And we discussed many issues in the passage of the night, some important, others not, and some just discussed as a bye the bye when there was nothing else to talk about.


For the drinking of fine drinks in pleasant company is made all the more pleasurable by the sound of talking voices, whether in harmony or whether in dissent, it does not matter which way the conversation goes, for silence is so deafening.

And so it was that we discussed Orion Petroleum in one such lull, and the comings and goings that are taking place there did raise some debate. Much debate, in fact.

It was noted that Eastern Star has so far drilled two holes for Orion to fulfil its requirements, and in the process, it has fulfilled its obligations under the Farm-out Agreement of 25th August 2008.

There are 2 stages in the farm-out agreement.

Stage 1 comprising the drilling of three coreholes, one in each of Petroleum Exploration Licences 6, 427 and 428 plus the acquisition of 100 km of 2D seismic data within PEL 6.

For doing this work, ESG will earn a 40% interest in the coal seam gas (CSG) rights of PEL 428 and a 50% interest in the CSG rights of both PEL 6 and PEL 427.

Stage 2 of the farm-in provides ESG with the option to earn a further 25% interestin the CSG rights of PEL 6 by drilling a second corehole in that licence.

Very clear and concise, and everybody there understood what was what, even Alvin the Idiot, who, at the best of times, is not the brightest spark , nor the second brightest spark nor even the third brightest spark.

In truth, he is like a dull blob at his brightest, bobbing like a shadow on the fringes, but I stray. We were not discussing Alvin the Idiot’s intellect, for that discussion would have lasted nary a minute. Back to Orion’ woes.

At that time, on 25 August 2008, Orion’s Managing Director, Mr Barry Smith, stated;

“Eastern Star is a leading operator of CSG resources in the State of NSW and their extensive expertise will help us to realise the CSG potential of our Surat-Bowen and Gunnedah acreage.”

"The Stage 1 and Stage 2 program, totalling four exploration coreholes and 100 line km of seismic, will be aimed at confirming multiple, high potential CSG exploration targets identified during a geological study that Orion conducted earlier in the year.

The farm-in program represents an acceleration of important technical work that Orion and ESG expect will
improve their understanding of the CSG resource potential of these prospective licences,” said Mr Smith.”

All very good, all very exciting, and I am sure that Orion shareholders sat back with a lot of happiness that they had a good partner in who would make things happen.

It was at this point that somehow we got to talking about fables and when we talk about fables, we talked about that most famous fablemakermon, Mr Aesop. Uncle Tobias used to read us the fables when we were young, when we couldn’t get to sleep on the warm nights when the breeze was still.

Our favourite was the fable about the wolf in sheep’s clothing. If I remember rightly, it went something like this:

A Wolf found great difficulty in getting at the sheep owing to the vigilance of the shepherd and his dogs. But one day it found the skin of a sheep that had been flayed and thrown aside, so it put it on over its own pelt and strolled down among the sheep. The Lamb that belonged to the sheep, whose skin the Wolf was wearing, began to follow the Wolf in the Sheep's clothing; so, leading the Lamb a little apart, he soon made a meal off her, and for some time he succeeded in deceiving the sheep, and enjoying hearty meals.
In other words, appearances are sometimes most deceptive and deadly.

But I stray again, for there is no relevance of that fable to Orion that I can think of, but I suppose it makes a nice little distraction from life’s grim reality.

So back to our thoughts on Orion. Oh yes, I almost forgot. Baboo Runchik reminded me that Mr Hardmano had asked the following:

“The fact that 7 months after the drilling in March and April we still have not seen gas desorption data or any statement of gas content for Kurrabooma is AMAZING .. and has lead me to conclude that there has been a deliberate "go-slow" in the OIP leases. Perhaps so as not to draw attention .. although why that is a good idea only someone like you might know. Care to enlighten us as to what the bigger picture is?”

I wish that the family was so enlightened as to cast some light on such a ponderous question, but we are but poor uneducated Jamaicans, and not up to the class and expertise of the ESG directors or the NEW directors of Orion so I am sure those gentlemen could well answer these questions better, with perhaps a wink or a nudge at the appropriate time when deemed necessary. For they must have that information lying under some paperweight in their office.

Unless it was used to dry out a wet shoe sometime after one of your Australian rain storms. I believe you get sudden rain storms in Australia, and Ms Pipi harrison, the podiatrist says that old scraps of inconsequential paper are the best things to stuff into shoes to dry them.

So, if someone in the ESG or Orion Board hah had wet shoes and had quite accidentally used the Orion drillig report to dry his or her shoes, then that is a very good reason why the report is not out, and one should understand such things and not complain.

They call complaining "winging" in australia, do they not? I suppose that is how they got the saying "on a wing and a prayer", and i assure you that there is a lot of winging when Bishop Atundra gives one of his lengthy sermons on sexual abstinence in the search for the Lord

But we hear that the question of Orion was raised at the Eastern Star AGM and it is our opinion that the leg glance played in reply was better than anything Sobers could have done. But then again, Sobers is from Barbados, and those Bardadians struggle to reach the form of us Jamaicans. Gosh, who can not have sat through a batting innings by Alf Valentine and not have felt that it was too short and that they would have wanted more?

Actually, come to think about it, Valentine was not actually a batsman but rather a tail-ender of sorts.

His leg glances were more of a windy wiffie, give or take a little wind. And we hear that Eastern Star played a leg glance that made Valentine’s batting look all class, when they were questioned about Orion.

I guess it is well known who are substantial shareholders in GGX, so there’s no point in going into that. But the family thinks that some of the ESG mob know some of the GGX mob quite well.

It is very good for people to be very friendly, because friends can always be counted upon to be helpful in times of need. Anyway, that is how it is here in Jamaica, and many has been the time when Holymagiman has given a friend of his a free puff of the Numba One to make his spirits better, and enrich him in measures unmeasurable. Ah, friends, who could have enough of them, who I ask you.

Here in Jamaica, we enjoy patting each other on the back as often as necessary, so that we all feel good and prosper in our own individual rights. Friendship is good and old friendship is even better.

Which reminds me of the story of the two cardsharps who went to the village fair that Ragoo the Barber told me, but I had better not start telling you that story because the last time I told the story I had heard about the monkeys and the bananas, it caused great angst. We apologise because we did not know that monkeys were sacred in Australia. Here in Jamaica, we tie a rope around their necks annd send them up to the top of the coconut tree to pluck the coconuts.

Sometimes we do not put a rope around the monkeys, but that is only if we really trust them to come down off the tree.

And monkeys being monkeys, they sometimes do not come down off the tree, and sit up there having a grand old time, sunning themselves, weeing in the wind and throwing coconuts at passing humans whenever they please. Like a coconut shy in reverse, if you get the picture.

On the surface, it seems to the family that if the OIP/GGX deal goes through, then the GGX shareholders are going to be somewhat better off than the OIP shareholders at the end of the deal.

We suppose that in any “deal”, one party comes out better than the other, sometimes by a little bit, sometimes by a lot. So it will be with this deal if it goes through, and the magnitude of the difference will be revealed by and by.

But as we smoked the smoke, and drank the drink and talked the talks, Alvin the Idiot pointed out that on 31 March 2009, ESG put out the following report about PEL 427:

“Orion Petroleum Limited (ASX: OIP) today said that the Moree-4 coal seam gas (CSG) corehole in PEL 427 in northern NSW reached its total depth of 495 mGL on 27 March. Total net coal intersected was approximately 5 metres with gas freely desorbing from the coal at surface. Over the coming month, total gas volumes within the coals will be determined.

“Wireline log data have been acquired and a subsequent drill stem test over the interval 423-443 failed to record a gas blow.

““Whilst the Coreena coal seams were thinner than expected in this area, Moree-4 provides an important CSG dataset for this play in the southern Surat Basin. The well demonstrated encouraging gas contents while drilling thus reducing one of the key risks associated with the target coals. Work will be undertaken to identify areas where improved coal development may be expected” said Orion’s Managing Director, Mr Barry Smith.”

FOR DRILLING 495 METRES, ESG GOT A 50% OF PEL 427.

And we wondered if this drilling was what Mr Barry Smith had expected when he said that "Eastern Star is a leading operator of CSG resources in the State of NSW and their extensive expertise will help us to realise the CSG potential of our Surat-Bowen and Gunnedah acreage.”

And we wondered if drilling 495m was the best way to confirm multiple, high potential CSG exploration targets .

But then again, we are but poor uneducated Jamaicans whose closest contact to the coal industry is Baboo Runchik, the coalman, and we must say we are very proud of knowing such a knowledgeable man.



On 20 April 2009, ESG put out the following report regarding PEL 428:

“Orion Petroleum Limited (ASX: OIP) today said that the Kurrabooma-1 coal seam gas (CSG) corehole in PEL 428 in northern NSW reached its total depth of 438.7 m on 17 April.

"Total net coal intersected was approximately 4 metres with visible free gas reported during drilling. Wireline log data have been acquired and over the coming months total gas volumes within the coals will be determined.

““Kurrabooma-1 is the first petroleum well in PEL 428 and indeed, the first CSG well in the licence area. As such, it provides the first detailed assessment of the coal characteristics, which will be integrated with other available information to establish a forward plan for future activities.

"PEL 428 covers a large area, in excess of 6,000 km2, that we believe holds exciting CSG potential.” said Orion’s Managing Director, Mr Barry Smith.”

ESG GOT 40% OF PEL 428 BY DRILLING A COREHOLE OF 438 M

And we wondered if this drilling was what Mr Barry Smith had expected when he said that "Eastern Star is a leading operator of CSG resources in the State of NSW and their extensive expertise will help us to realise the CSG potential of our Surat-Bowen and Gunnedah acreage.”

And we wondered if drilling 438m was the best way to confirm multiple, high potential CSG exploration targets .

But then again, we are but poor uneducated Jamaicans whose closest contact to the coal industry is Baboo Runchik, the coalman, and we must say we are very proud of knowing such a knowledgeable man.


And so, now, ESG is going to drill 2 more coreholes in PEL 6, and the family discussed the possible outcome of these two wells. It was while we were talking about what would eventuate that Holymagiman suddenly stopped smoking his Jamaica Numba One Extra Spejil and took a long quizzical look at Alvin the Idiot.

so we all turned to look at Alvin the Idiot. And what a sight we saw.

Alvin the Idiot was slowly turning blue, and not breathing at all. All very frightening, all very sudden and all very tense. That was until Uncle Remus gave Alvin the Idiot a shake and told him not to hold his breath hoping for a successful outcome of the drilling, if that was the reason he wwas holding his breath and if past performances were anything to go by.

So Alvin the Idiot stopped holding his breath, the nice black colour came back to his face, and we got on with the business at hand, which was to have a good smoke of the best smoke, a good drink of the best brew and to have a good yarn of matters inconsequential and otherwise.

And we noted that ALL Eastern stars wells drilled on their own leases have gone deeper, much much deeper.

For example, ESG’s Dewhurst 14 reached a total depth of 1220 m.

ESG’s Dewhurst 13 reached a total depth of 1225m.

Dewhurst 11 reached a total depth of 1038m.

The Rosevale 1 corehole had reached a depth of 588.5m on 04/11/2009. The well will continue to core ahead through the primary targets of the Black Jack and Maules Creek coal sections.

In other words, Rosevale 1 HAD NOT REACHED THE BLACK JACK OR MAULES CREEK COAL SECTIONS AT 588.5 M. Therefore the target seams appear to be much deeper than 588.5m

By looking at the depth of all the other wells drilled by ESG for themselves, it appears to the family that the major coal seams in the Gunnedah basin are deeper than 600m.

So we were very surprised that the previous Orion board were happy to let ESG drill to only 428m in PEL 428 and to only 495m in PEL 427, and considered that this amount of drilling was sufficient. We would have thought that this could prove to be very shallow drilling in the light of the depths that ESG is drilling in its own PEL 238

And Alvin the Idiot asked, why did they not drill all the way down to about 1100m. After all they had the drill rigthere, and that drill had the capabilities of drilling as deep as was necessary.

But that Alvin the Idiot asks the stupidest questions possible, and I suppose that was a consequence of being dropped on his head twice when he was born.

You see, what happened was that the nurse who was supposed to catch him was looking at her watch as he came shooting out, because she did not want to miss the 6.15 bus to Trenchtown.

So Alvin (who may not have been an idiot then) went crashing onto the concrete floor and bounced off on his head.

That was bad enough, but things got worse when Bishop Raymond Atundra, his father, came to visit that evening and asked what had happened to Alvin’s head.

The doctor was stuttering and stammering while trying to explain things to Bishop Atundra, and he was making a complete hash of it when the nurse, who had missed her bus and was hanging around killing time while waiting for the next bus which was at 10.43 decided that she would show the Bishop what happened, to make him understand how it had happened and that it had happened as a genuine mistake and not done out of any malice towards the offspring of a clergyman.

So she lifted the sleeping Alvin off the basinette and showed Bishop Atundra exactly what happened, how she was looking at her watch because she really had not wanted to miss her bus because she had to be home in time to have a wash and a shave as she was going out with “Blues” Niles M’ndeka, and how Alvin had come shooting out at this very time, and then she proceeded to show him exactly how she had dropped Alvin the first time.

I suppose it was that second fall that made Alvin become an Idiot, and everyone who was there still talks with astonishment about how high Alvin bounced off the floor when he was dropped the second time.

But enough about Alvin and back to Orion and ESG.

It is a shame that nobody has really grilled the Orion Board on why the drilling was stopped at that early stage. Of course, nobody would think of asking a stupid question like what Alvin asked, because the orion Board and ESG would have very good and accptable answers to such stupid questions, and we are sure that they are waiting with bated breaths to be asked these very questions so that they can give all the Orion shareholders the reason with great aplomb and flourish.

Alvin asked whether the drilling was stopped on purpose because they did not want to drill further and show up the true potential of the PELs 427 and 428. What an absolutely preposterous question and one that was only can come out of the mouth of the veritable village idiot. that alvin the Idiot is so so stupid to even dream of asking such a stupid question.

The family believes that there is a perfectly innocent answer to that stupid question that only Alvin the Idiot can dig up, for the family believes that they are honourable men, so are they all, all honourable men, and such things as alvin the idiot suggests would be below their dignity.


So that leaves us all in a quandary, wondering why the coreholes were drilled so shallow. Perhaps the drills had to go to another site, or perhaps the drill rig operators were spending too much time over tea, but we were not there, so we will never know, unless the question is asked of the boards by someone more knowledgeable than us and they happily and willingly assuage our discomfiture.

Bur we do feel that Orion’s leases are in a most strategic part of the Gunnedah Basin, and it is our opinion that it will only be a matter of time before Orion comes into play. And it is sad to reflect upon the fact that if this GGX/Orion merger goes through, then the stake of the Orion shareholders will be surely diluted.

We notice that there is going to be a scheme of arrangement being offered to the GGX shareholders and we feel that that will easily be agreed upon by the GGX shareholders.

However we do not see any scheme of arrangement vote being offered to the Orion shareholders prior to this deal being done and we think that it may be in the best interests of Orion shareholders to demand this from their present board before it is too late.

I believe the breaking fees for the arrangement by the party that breaks off the deal is $100,00, which, in the scheme of things, is nothing much.

And perhaps if such a scheme of arrangement vote was to come along, then maybe those with obvious conflicts of interest should be excluded from the vote, to keep everything above board and equal.


And somehow, in Alvin the Idiot's twisted mind, he feels that the dilution of the Orion shareholders by the GGX merger will somehow make the move by ESG upon Orion that much easier. Alvin is an idiot, so we do not pay too much heed to his utterances.

Sometimes I wonder why I even bother to write about what he thnks, but his thoughts are good for a laugh, or at least a wry smile, in these troubled times, so I thought I would share them with you.

So we await what the drilling of PEL 6 will show. A very good result from PEL 6 could well encourage Orion to break the deal with GGX, if the results come out in time and provided the board of Orion, with the backing of the major shareholders ESG decide that in the light of things, such a deal would be retrogressive to present Orion shareholders.


But then again, we are but poor uneducated Jamaicans whose closest contact to the coal industry is Baboo Runchik, the coalman, we have no education in high finance, and we must say we are very proud of knowing such a knowledgeable man as Baboo.

And just to keep the family's interest in these mundane affairs alive, we have purchased a couple of shares in OIP, for we believe that ESG may well move on Orion some time soon.

But my head is heavy with a surfeit of goodness of the night before and my stomach is filled with an emptiness profound, and the sweet smells of breakfast are wafting through the air, so I have to leave you now with the blessings of the Lord.

MLA