waiting game, page-28

Dj

Thanks for ur valuable contributions over the past wks

I've had a look at ur logic/odds. For every $1k you might 'invest', you have an 85% chance of losing 'at least' half ur money. While there's a 15% chance of making 3.5 times ur money.

So that's
.85 x .5 = .425
+
.15 x 3.5 = .525

Meaning the odds that you believe you are 'betting' on are no better than what is available on a casino roulette table - a return index of slightly less than one.

I'm invested here because I believe the risk / reward of significantly greater than 1, though I'm not as confident as the very well informed Timber7 who estimates ~70% chance of success.

Note of course that the numerical logic above is based on 105 alone and excludes the mutually exclusive probability of success at 120.