I've no doubt the metrics used in valuing a company such as BOW...

I've no doubt the metrics used in valuing a company such as BOW are quite complex. There would be all sorts of modelling and projecting as well as a hard look at company data. Also there would be a huge allowance made for the "unexpected".
Even Arrow with all it's knowledge is exposing itself to risk and the best way to offset risk is to buy cheaply.
3P is an indicative figure of what may be there, 2P firms the numbers up a bit but extraction figures are what starts to add true value. That's why Arrow's bid is opportunistic - they are willing to carry the risk with the potential of huge rewards. Others companies don't appear to be willing to do the same.
That's why the recommendation to accept the offer is reasonable in the absence of other bidders. Simply by refusing we as shareholders then carry that risk with the added burden of capital raisings and joint ventures. So in the end we'll take what's on offer and move on. But there's no rush and the unexpected may still happen.