waiting, page-5

letsee,

You can call it nonsense if you want but i'm the only person who's even done some rough calcs on here, which i did before the stock opened after the announcement. I called it lower for those same reasons. Let's see yours Mr Toughguy!

Show us some back of the envelope NPV, so we can see how the balance sheet is going to account for the upfront capital expenditure (whether debt or equity). Show us how the projected profit to achieve the milestone payments are more than enough to justify a significant re-rating. You can't because without further contracts being granted or an extension to the proposed project, all you have is 5-years of average NPAT and a large upfront expense. You say it's a joke to compare this project to a mining company - i say the capital management principle has similar parallels.

You say a slowing China property market makes no difference to this project. I say it is entirely foolish to ignore that little thing called market sentiment. It's the exact reason why quality and profitable stocks can trade well below their cash backing at times, a la the GFC. And SOI is far from a quality stock with a proven income stream. I strongly disagree with you that geoeconomic and geopolitical factors can't play an influence on stocks in nearby regions.

At the end of the day, the market has spoken and if it was so self-evident that there is enormous value here, it's likely that the sp would at least be trading at or slightly above what it was, just prior to the announcement.

All i would say to anyone thinking of buying, is do some numbers and run some basic scenarios in Excel. We don't have all the numbers but we have enough to form a basic picture of how things will play-out, upfront costs, approx npat over first 5 years etc... do the sums, calculate EPS and see what you think.