To all the NWE holders that are reading this forum with their rose-tinted glasses and hoping for an offer of 50c a share, you should look at Beach Energy's Quarterly out today to understand the level of risk involved in Lockyer Deep.
https://yourir.info/resources/0c5a441cf54ff229/announcements/bpt.asx/2A1427801/BPT_FY23_Second_Quarter_Activities_Report.pdfBeach has reduced Waitsia reserves by 11% as a result of their DEVELOPMENT drilling campaign with only 4 of 6 wells coming in as expected. Waitsia-10 failed to find gas at all in an area that was already booked as 2P Reserve. The Kingia Reservoir is clearly low quality across the field resulting in a further write-down. Finding this out after signing 5 year LNG contracts with BP is not a good outcome.
Why is this a concern to NWE?
Waitsia now has 11 wells drilled, is covered by 3D seismic and has 6 years of production history. Despite all this data and 6 years of great minds working the field, Waitsia is still throwing up surprises in the downside.
By Contrast, Lockyer Deep has a single well, limited wireline log data, is drilled on 2D seismic and has no production history. The next few wells will demonstrate a much more complex field with more compartments (but as an upside, maybe more gas) and the 3D will certainly re-write the map and add complexity.
Waitsia JV has spent more than $1 Billion on the development (and still counting). Anyone that thinks NWE and MIN can develop the field for $100m gross should do some more homework.
NWE has been a good run and I'm taking the MIN offer. Anyone that sticks around should be prepared for some big disappointments and downgrades as the appraisal of Lockyer progresses.
Caveat Emptor and DYOR.
