TOE 10.0% 27.5¢ toro energy limited

Based on my back of envelope type analysis (please DYOR), Panda,...

  1. 87 Posts.
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    Based on my back of envelope type analysis (please DYOR), Panda, we need to consider that the 14 year life is the time it will take to process the 26mlb of JORC resource in ONLY the Centipede and Lake Way Project Areas. So we need to consider the Wiluna JORC Resource overall which is at 54mlb, which then takes into account Millipede and the rest. The timing of when the additional resources can come online has not been communicated as yet..but lets say it is 2017, then you essentially have 2 x 14 year mines running side by side. What is also not known is the costings on how they can increase processing capacity from 1.8mlb to, say, double, for this to occur. However, if they can, the PV on the Wiluna profits (assuming a discount rate of 18% and uranium price increments of 5% year on year from here on) appears to be over $350m. If you deduct the capital investment of $280m, your NPV is $70m. However, if you want to then get an enterprise value, we need to take into account Theseus, and the timing of when this gets going.
    My above estimates are (probably) massively conservative, and don't even have the U3o8 price going to $100/lb until the very latter part of the project. If I wanted to be more realistic, and use 10% year on year price increase of uranium, Wiluna on its own would appear to have an NPV of over $300m (even assuming extra capex needed). However, obviously looking forward the release of more formal economics from Toro soon (DYOR!!)
 
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