There was a significant sharp overnight fall based on a sound bite from the Russians about not doing anything more than they were already doing really - but it regained a chunk of that as soon as API reported a 5.8m draw. API doesn't necessarily tally with the EIA, but assuming they also report similar stats overnight (day late due to US hol), adding to the growing consensus that the 2nd half of this year is going to see ever dimishing oil inventories leading up to US shale output falling off a cliff... then that's naturally of more long term consequence.
I think in general, as soon as Brent can get back over $50, (technical and psychological level) it will focus attention back on the upside and oilers will be back in vogue. $55-60 at backend of year is my guess.
Noticed in today's Preso, it reminds us "Currently reviewing proposals for future sales with contract expected shortly " - so will be interesting to see how that's structured and then maybe get some fixed $ amounts for nalysts to crunch into spreadsheets - hopefully a near term SP driver.
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