wake up people, page-8

Soho, that's as good a summary in a few sentences as I've seen and somehow you managed to touch on most of the key points in 3 paras! Sadly I haven't mastered that skill, lol.

Markets are lagging the reality by about 3/4 months IMO so the next 3/6 are going to be ugly IMO and who knows where the SP may go in that time.

RE demand has not only fallen due to high prices/weak GDP but also massively contracted into China. None of these have been fully priced in as yet because we are going to need to see some of the ROW wannabes fall over, or go back to chasing U or whatever the new fad is. Moly could very easily be one of them. Mt Pass probably could have survived if it had been geared to 5/10ktpa but 20ktpa Phase 1 with their product suite is way over the top & Phase 2 sheer lunacy. The shakeout will be very positive for Lynas as it is rerated ahead of the pack in the second half.

Supporting your last para: Siemans is v important to Lynas both as a value add & growth opportunity given magnets are projected as the highest growth sector for REO at 9%pa.

An illustration of the importance of price levels to end users:

First the impact of bubble prices:

The economics:

Note: Nd/Pr fell to $45kg China domestic in December and Dy quoted at $401kg, both now well within the economic threshold again. ROW $75 & $630 and I imagine the prices to the Siemans JV will be set in line with the economics above.

How the business will build on stable, economic prices:

This is a snapshot of the Lynas business model.