eert: Looks like your copying my portfolio :PI've been holding...

eert: Looks like your copying my portfolio :P

I've been holding (and trading a little) TIS since mid 30 cents and bought more at 0.70

There are not many sellers around and it appears as though the consolidation is almost complete after the last move upwards.

News is expected in the coming weeks/months regarding a commercialisation deal that will be a company maker IMO. The technology is all but proven with the clinical trials to date. The company has stated the product should be on the shelves before the end of 2011. TIS market cap is <$100m, so on a PE of 15 the market is expecting NPAT of approximately $7mpa on a revolutionary technology with a market size in excess of $US6 billion.

Downside risk is no commercialisation deal so no commercialisation of technology, but that seems unlikely given the companies comments of "extremely encouraging" discussions so far and the fantastical clinical trial results.

Lets assume a 20% chance of the commercialisation talks falling through and TIS falls to 30c. Assume if a commercialisation deal happens we'll be looking at $2+ in the short term, let alone the medium/longterm.

Based on current price of $0.70:

30c = Loss of $0.40 / share
$2.00 = Profit of $1.30 / share

So on a risk adjusted basis we have a potential gain of:

-0.4*0.2 + 1.3*0.8 = $0.96

So on the above assumptions and risk adjusted basis TIS should be closer to 0.96+0.7 = $1.66

I'll take those apples any day.