Many Australians havn't yet realized that we will be at war with China when they invade Taiwan. This is a given. The Australian governments of all persuasions support this, as the USA does, and the CPP is also well aware of it too.
The question then, is not 'if,' but 'when.'
China has now built a military apparatus sufficient to attempt the taking of Taiwan, and only the USA and their allies stand in the way. The emphasis must be placed on the US, as only they can lead the charge in defense of the 'renegade state.'
But not everything is rosy at home in the USA. In fact, it is quite possible, and even probable, that they will have a war of their own before long, and this as unfortunate as it is, will be China's queue to invade Taiwan. But before discussing further the war with China, the forthcoming American 'war' requires clarifying. This is because the war with China is more likely to develop only, once the USA begins to implode.
America has deep internal divisions that we are all aware are beginning to take hold in a significant way. This is more likely to rise to increased conflict before it gets better. There is every chance that it will develop into a war on the streets, a civil war type conflict, mostly between black and white citizens whom are both well armed, and who both believe that they have the right to take up arms against their internal enemies, even if that is their own government. If this plays out in any significant manner, and my believe is that it will, then China will take the opportunity to make its next aggressive move.
Depending on how extensive the 'war' is in the USA, will determine on how much attention they can provide to the Taiwan conflict. Naturally, the longer China waits until civil war in the US is established, the better opportunity they have of less resistance from the US to defend Taiwan. But for arguments sake, lets say that China invades Taiwan sooner than latter, say once the internal situation in the USA escalates, which is likely later this year after the elections.
In this period, the USA's Western Pacific Fleet patrolling in the South China Sea with Australia's support, as well as Taiwan's own defense forces, is China's only deterrent form making their offensive. If they do strike, then we all need to hope that the US and their allies will be successful in Taiwan's defense. But there is no guarantee of this.
China's own offensive cannot be underestimated, and if they come up trumps in this first step of the war, then I believe China will attempt to bring the war to us in Australia. This is because they have significant interests here, and in their sights, once we are at war with them, then then they will not hesitate in securing their assets here on our own soil. As such, we can expect an invasion force from China to secure certain areas of northern Australia. I suggest the NT and the northern half of WA.
The above brief outline of war with China is predicated on the probability of the USA continuing to fall into internal chaos, and therefore not able to continue to extend itself in the Western Pacific, unlike it could in WW2. Adding to this is the requirement that China will be more successful than not in taking Taiwan. If these two conditions eventuate, then Australia will be China's next target, and we cannot properly defend ourselves with our limited defense capabilities.
The United Kingdom and possibly some other European nations are likely to 'come' to our rescue, but this of course will be limited when Putin begins sabre rattling in Europe for the sole reason of supporting China, which he will do without hesitation. But regardless, there is little to stand in the way between our northern shores and a successful landing by hundreds of thousand Chinese troops.
If you think that the year 2020 is noteworthy, it will have nothing on 2021.
Post script: Scomo might begin to regret calling for an international inquiry on the origins of SARS-CoV-2, not that this will have have any real affect on the above mentioned war scenarios compared to Australia's dedication to the cause of defending Taiwan. But frankly, if he really wanted to know the viral origins, all he had to do was to study its genome; it doesn't lie. Rather, he chose to put the boot in when the beast was down. Foolish move. Not that it will make any difference in China's end game. Never underestimate the evil capabilities of powerful men, especially when they have the support of their own dictatorial government and obliging citizens (many of them). There will be no shortage of patriotism to support the CCP once they take the offensive. China believes it has a point to make. It's been building for centuries, just as the internal issues in the USA have been.
