Well, I have to warn you guys that the biggest shareholder of BUB is the
bubble-tea girl in China.
Technically, she is quite an eye canddy at age of 24 but married to a 43 years old sugar daddy - Qiangdong Liu, the founder of JD.Com Inc(ADR) (NASDAQ: JD). JD is a good company, which is like a small Amazon in China. But it is totally smashed by Alibaba and Taobao these years, with net loss increasing every year, please go check this link (
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-jd-com-results-idUSKCN1AU10N). In Chinese public opinion, the bubble tea girl has pretty look but quite a fool in almost everything.
Her sugar daddy offers some money to do investment and establish her own business and BUB is just one of them. According to the initial IPO, this bubble-tea girl is the biggest share holder with 17.3%, while Albert Tse has only 8.3%, at the price of 0.10.
Well, we are all expecting the financial report next week, but my research tells me it won't look good enough to support the current price at 0.7. The bubble-tea girl is the actual boss who wants to duplicate the miracle of Bellamy. BUB has a good sales channel since it is supported by his sugar-daddy's JD.com (Chinese amazon). But let's have a look at the sales data of BUB in JD.com(Chinese Amazon) and Taobao (Chinese Ebay), compared to that of Bellamy and A2M.
Sales
per month on
Taobao:
BUB 12 < Bellamy 1849 > A2M 1215
Sales
in total on
JD.com: Bellamy 10251 >
BUB 1 < A2M 49856
The third channel is through ‘Daigou’, the one who post the baby formula from Australia to China to make a profit. I used to do this for my friends and family who need baby food so I know the market. According to the information I got in WA,
no Daigou is working on BUB. The favorite products are still Aptamil, bellamy and A2M.
If we compare the sales of BUB in china with Bellamy, using the data from Taobao, it is 12 : 1800. This year Bellamy made a sale around 240 m, so I would estimate BUBS could make it around 4 m, similar to 4.34 m in FY 2016.
The price recently is strange, big guys in and big guys out happen at the same time. To me it looks like someone wants the price consolidated at 0.7.
This reminds me Dec-2015, when A2M is still 0.6. But the FY 2015 is 155.1m. Then the FY 2016 at 352 m rocketed the price to 2.0. FY 2017 gives 549.5m, even bigger than Bellamy.
I would say 0.2 is a fair price for BUB, while it looks like some big guys want it stabilized at 0.7. But who knows the FY2017 of BUB. To me it wont be good since I did a survey to Chinese market. In a rank of 150 baby formula, BUB ranks around 120........ It seems no one knows it.
Last two days with 20m trade amount, valued around AUD 14 m. I even doubt if the BUB FY2017 can give a 14 m total sale.
It looks like BUBs gonna break. Well done bubble-tea girl! I have taken my profit at 0.73. If no more spike in volume to support at 0.725, it will be hard to roar up again.
The FY release time is next Monday right? Or moved to Friday? That will be the execute day!
Good luck to all. Hope I am wrong!
(20min delay)