Putting aside the very large roll costs between now and...

Putting aside the very large roll costs between now and December. The issue you have is, if the spot price doesn't change, that December contract will keep falling back towards the spot price. Just like the June and July contracts are now.

Of course, you can't put aside roll costs in this environment, If the spot price of WTI does eventually rise to $40, it is all about how quickly it gets there, if it doesn't jump until December and the markets remain as they are today, most of your NAV will have already been lost by the time you get there.

Think of it like a poker match, eventually you get a great hand, but if the blinds are 20% of your stack each time and it took you 5 hands to get there, your all in at the end worth account for much.