There is a minor error in my last post. The subtrend I refer to...

There is a minor error in my last post. The subtrend I refer to is for 2016 and 2017 not 2015 and 2016. Another thing I think is apparent in the DJIA chart, is that 2016 was more orderly than 2015. What I mean by that is that you can explain the 2016 movement with trend lines but you cant do that easily with 2015.

2015 was the end of QE in the US. It looks like the hedge funds took full opportunity of that and ripped into the market during the last quarter of 2015 (by shorting the market twice). They actually broke the GFC super trend support line and risked another major crash. This turned out to be a false breakdown - thanks to the fed as explained below.

Crashing, volatile markets don't help the economy recovery or the viability of super funds. Since the end of 2015, the major central banks (UK, Europe, US, Japan, China, etc.) have included index stocks in their asset purchasing programs. That's why I think the market has been more buoyant and well behaved despite Brexit and the Trump win (both of which got quick fix action by central banks, I assume).

IMO, the key to successful trading is to don't pay any attention to the news - which just gets invented (cherry picked) each day to explain the previous day's movements. Markets often climb a wall of worry and fall when you are not expecting it (often for no reason). I believe the central banks have much to do with this.

So the key to successful trading is to make short, medium and long term predictions entirely from chart trend lines (and technical indicators) and trade accordingly.