wat we know and what we don't

Hi All

Fear and Greed are great motivators both are obvious here with fear well and truly in ascendency.

In my last post in the daily charts thread I said 1.1c was offering tentative support but that as PIE remains firmly in down trend in the absence of timely news flow it could conceivably drop another 50%, I certainly didn’t expect it to occur so soon.

For a moment let’s consider what we know and what we don’t.

Campbell Smith
We know he was pushed but we don’t know why, we know that since he left there have been raft of changes made that would most likely not have occurred under his control, R&D on the webphone is now complete with staff reductions and associated cost savings, WiFi has become a major focus, the Logo and Web site have been upgraded and given a corporate look and feel, the Head Office and marketing has been relocated to Sydney closer to and in the same time zone as PIE’s major markets.
Last year I spent a couple of hours with Campbell at the Osborne Park office and got a good feel for the company the product and the man, PIE was his baby and he was totally committed to it, he is very personable and I was at ease immediately talking to him but when I asked about relocating to Sydney his reply was that he would rather continue to commute. In hindsight I think Campbell, as dedicated as he was, had reached his level of incompetence and was holding the company back so needed to be replaced. (personal view only)

Justin Milne
We know he’s gone but we don’t know why. We know it’s not great news and that is reflected in the SP, if Justin had prior knowledge of impending doom for PIE and abandoned ship to save his skin, which I seriously doubt, he’s going to be in very deep doodoo’s because there are rules governing that behaviour. If you look at MMX when it all hit the fan last year the news was released to the market before the directors resigned. I suspect Justin has received an offer too good to refuse with another company or companies which will dominate his time leaving insufficient available to do justice to PIE, if this is the case then I wish him well and acknowledge that he has done the right thing by PIE SH, we will know in time.

Board and Management
We have lost a long serving director Craig Ferrier because he took up full time employment in the mining sector, in hind sight it’s bad timing but otherwise nothing sinister, Justin Milne has come and gone which is unfortunate but he instigated change for the better, Peter Gunzburg, a highly experienced director and long time PIE supporter has returned to the board and we have gained Mark Pitts a highly experienced Company Secretary as a Director.
As CEO we have lost Campbell Smith and gained Craig Turner, Mr Turner Joined pieNETWORKS in July 2011 After more than 20 Years service with Telstra Corporation Ltd, The last 10 Years in senior management positions responsible for product management, product development and strategy. His Immediate past position with Telstra Was Executive Director, Fixed Voice And Broadband Products & Applications, And in that role was responsible for lifecycle product management and product development across fixed voice (PSTN Telephony), Consumer fixed broadband, Telstra Pay---TV (FOXTEL resale), and consumer online applications.

Telstra
We know that a number of webphones were trialled around the country and that Telstra released a statement claiming that the phones performed beyond expectation, WiFi was not enabled for the trial and those phones remain in situ. We know PIE is in ongoing discussion with Telstra regarding a staged roll out of webphones, we don’t know when, where or how many.

WiFi and Tabcorp
We know PIE provided WiFi to Tabcorp at Flemington for the Spring Carnival and that it was a run away success, we don’t know if it will lead to further orders however Tabcorp is considering their business case and options for a next phase deployment of managed WiFi services for its customers at TAB outlets, pubs and clubs, and on-course locations. In addition to an ongoing engagement with Tabcorp, we are in active discussions with a number of other potential customers across various market segments about opportunities for managed Wi-Fi services in their businesses.

SP Movement
PIE’s all time low SP of .005 was struck in July 03 and confirmed in Aug 03 from there PIE rode the tech boom and traded as high as 14.5c in Sept 07 (wow what a multi bagger) only to re test and confirm support at .006 in Dec 08 from there it traded in a band ranging from .008 to .014 with support at .01 then with the announcement of a Telstra trial it rallied strongly finding resistance and being rejected at .035 and .036, from there it entered a trading range of .02 to .025 with .02 providing strong support, on the announcement of a successful trial the SP rallied and once again tested resistance by being rejected at .035 and retreated back into the former trading range waiting for more positive news, with the lack of positive news flow and ongoing movement at board and management level the .02 support failed .011 offered little resistance allowing the low of .006 to be tested and confirmed once more with the SP closing at .007. In my last post I said PIE was heading for a double bottom where it is actually currently doing a triple bottom.

Forum Sentiment
We know it’s not good and I may be way off the mark here but I can’t help thinking there is correlation between the influx of down rampers here and the new found strength on the buy side for PIE.

Trading Halt Where To From Here?
We will all know on Tuesday.

PIE all time low

PIE triple bottom