Bskerr1 is back :-) and I agree with Dogby, in general the...

Bskerr1 is back :-) and I agree with Dogby, in general the commercial property markets are going to be trouble. Look at the ACT, to many vacant commercial properties already so they create a new law allowing people to convert offices into apartments. GPT is trying to offload its 30% of foreign investment because they can see the problems over seas.

The share markets worldwide are running on pure optimizem. GMG as far as I am aware is exposed to commercial property in Hong Kong as well, Hong Kong's stocks and value have gone up in recent months because of China's huge M2 money growth, 28.5% and some of that has made its way into HK markets. China's gov is currently allowing a very lose monetary policy creating huge assets bubbles in real estate and stock market. They can't keep money supply going like this forever because inflation will take hold which is a killer for the hundreds of millions of poor farmers, the last thing the Chinese gov needs is social unrest, so when their assets markets crash or go down HK will get hit as well, and I would guess GMG will suffer to some extent.

Worse is the toxic debt building up in commercial property in the US. CIT looks like it will go bankrupt, a big part of that is because of toxic commercial property. The US commercial real estate market is a dog at the moment, GE maybe have CRE toxic exposer of at least 660 million, in general they believe the CRE in the US could be exposed up to 1.5 Trillion. Already they are up to 60 day deliquesces valuse around 20 billion in CRE and now many small banks in the US look like they could collapse because of this and will most likely need a bailout. Point been if the US market dose take a nose dive, it will affect us big time.

When the US markets take a second big hit which is coming watch our markets get hit. When the Chinese market goes though the same second big hit watch their markets go down, and it would be interesting to see how much CIC will lose in value considering the massive over inflated prices of Chinese private and state owned companies, Check China's real fundamentals out, such as its exports, where it gets its real money from, its a shocker, their exports just keep dropping as world demand dries up, which also tells us that the world is not doing so well as the media hype tells us.

In Melbourne the amount of free CRE space is increasing, look at any small suburb and you can see more and more vacant shops. The hype on Ozy news is just that, always the news gets it's financial news from who? IMG, Commbank, Maquarry Bank, all whom have vested interests in markets so the last thing they are going to do is downplay the markets along with gov. The most common used world on Oz TV "Where feel the worst is behind us and be can see the bottom and now a recovery is on its way" has anyone notice they have been saying this for more than 6 months now?

Last, look at the 1929 great depression, what is happening in our markets now is following the trends of the great depression. We are heading for a second big correction. And it looks like from last night the US markets could have just run out of steam.

I think anyone in commercial property is taking a risk, gmg might do capital rising but that does not mean it has fundamental value. It's still got to take a hit alone with everyone else.