PB - A fair point about Western Tan. Its not an exciting asset or arguably acreage, at least in regards to past exploration, yet NST happy to buy it.... then all the land grabbing NST have been doing. I guess they are trying to keep the acquisitions as quiet as they can until they have all they want. As you say, the CT plant is indeed a key part of the whole package, yet... NST seem very happy to simply sit on it. This to me implies that they have something up their sleeve. In fact, just thinking about it now, perhaps NST recent buy of the Western assets, was a nudge to TAM that they will easily have the cash to wait for perhaps another year or 2 before CT gets refurbished? NST like to explore and in reality, have really only been brown field exploration. They obviously view the ground in NT as being good (but perhaps also relatively unloved compared to everywhere else).
I cannot argue that NST have done well, but... they have done well for their shareholders, not TAMs to date. Only have to look at the trajectory of the two companies share prices to see a massive difference.
I cannot buy into TAM, not because there is no value, but... because NST seem to have almost total control over the companies future, not TAM. Management seem to be sitting on their hands (yes they probably have to, but... they made the deal with NST.... so the buck stops with them).
Perhaps you are right about the NT delays etc. The agreement with TAM/NST might include some excellent clauses which almost ensure NST can take their time. With hindsight I think TAM have made some mistakes by not trying to add acreage to their portfolio around the CT plant... that would have given them some leverage with NST.
I thought about $0.05 would be a ok floor for the shar price, but that has been smashed. Perhaps an MC of around $35-40m will be the low? So hard to know. Good luck either way.
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