hi guys, well i must say I like the way astroider is approaching it, and as a recent ari stock holder if I may offer a couple of humble things-
1) some people are saying stuff about the Chinese Gov entering market to keep io price downtrending in order to provide work for local io producers as a million people a week come to cities as part of urbanisation etc etc-
false - the urbanisation of china didn't start in mid 2010 , when the iron ore price topped out at over 177 bucks a tonne, its been going on for a while longer than that, yet the price rose to those levels ,so quit the conspiracy crap.
2) any other theory relating to supply and demand
false
Have a look at the monthly chart for iron ore since 2000 and this should be enough for most investors to see what the smart traders are saying here on the forum, its trying to tell you that the price for io got overheated and it is now simply returning to a balance, and almost always the market overshoots to the downside of the long term average as it corrects, because of a myriad of reasons.
ANSWER-
So if you paid over a dollar for Ari in the last decade, then apart from dividends to get you over the line, you are basically shagged, it may not get back there for a long time.
but if you paid under 40 cents, then you have an excellent chance of making money in the next 16 months.
If you paid under 30 cents then as above but 12 months
if you pay under 20 cents you will almost certainly get a chance to sell your shares at a profit as the io price stabilises in the next 8 months.
I Am so sure of the above both from a technical and fundamental point of view that I have posted ,as I rarely post to voice my conviction on a stock because frankly no individual sock should have you worrying to much .
hope this helps some people, all the best.
ARI Price at posting:
19.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
