AAP 11.1% 3.0¢ australian agricultural projects limited

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  1. 1,061 Posts.
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    I don't subscribe to the webpage, however there was a similar article on CNN last week, and I suspect they are more or less reporting the same thing:

    ...Global production of the oil dropped by a third last year, data from the International Olive Council show.

    Spain, which produces about 40% of the world's olive oil, experienced an unusually hot and dry summer in 2014. That led to the worst harvest in nearly 20 years, farmers say.

    To meet export orders, Spanish producers ran down their reserves. But the 2015/2016 harvest is also turning out to be weak, again due to unusually hot summer weather. Three weeks of very high temperatures in July 2015 caused huge amounts of olives to mature too quickly.

    The International Olive Council now expects Spain to produce 1.2 million tones of olive oil this year, better than last year's disastrous harvest, but still way below the 1.8 million tonnes the country typically produces.

    And it's not just Spain. Millions of olive trees in Italy, which produces 20% of the world's olive oil, have been attacked by a deadly disease...

    The last time the share price of this little company was at 4.3 c was back in 2008, and in many respects it isn't all that surprising that it is hitting multi year highs.

    Most soft commodities have experienced a slump over the past several months, but olive oil is bucking the trend.

    This company has a supply agreement with Boundary Bend. so they don't benefit from the higher olive oil price, at least in the short term. However, according to the announcement on the 29th, the expectation is that they will be moving to the retail price in 2017.

    It is impossible to say if the olive oil price will still be high next year, but I'd say it is likely given that it takes four years before an olive tree produces its first crop, and over ten years before the tree reaches maximum yield.  So any trees that have been planted in reaction the the higher prices would only be about two years old, as it seems that the price spike only became evident towards the end of 2014 (as shown in the chart below, the lines representing the Spanish/Italian olive oil price).

    Last edited by Inchiquin: 16/03/16
 
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