water allocations, page-15

Water good: tick

Next is the crop and that of the competition (Californians). Here is a link to some Almond crop info from Hilltop Ranch a producer/processor in CA.

The link: http://www.hilltopranch.com/2010/03/almond-update-2/

The article:

Almond Update
Posted on March 10th, 2010

Today the Almond Board of California reported:
February 2010 shipments were 115.5 million lbs.
- 0.8% below February 2009 shipments of 116.4 million
- Domestic shipments were down 3% and exports were up slightly.
The market has been fluctuating regularly in the past few weeks depending on the weather and inquiry levels. There has been a steady firming for the past 1.5 weeks, especially for STD5. The spreads among varieties have been greatly reduced, with Carmel just .10/lb. below Nonpareil for some sizes.
SHIPMENTS/DEMAND:
Todays report brings shipments for the season to 956 million vs. 812 last season, up nearly 18%. Most noteworthy for us is that the industry shipped nearly the same amount as February 2009 despite shipments being off approximately 4 million lbs. to the U.A.E. (Dubai) and 5 million to China/Hong Kong. These markets are still working through inventory but should be back to buy within a few months. Most are still expecting for shipments through July to be similar to the previous year and for a carry-out in the range of 200 million lbs. Significant sways from this either direction should impact the market. We think it will be 6-9 months before the majority of impact of the large price increase of this season is demonstrated in our monthly shipments. The high pricing of competing nuts is what continues to keep many optimistic about almond demand heading into next season.
THE 2009 CROP:
Crop receipts as of February 28 were 1.383 billion lbs., just 2.44% above the NASS objective estimate, with limited receipts to come.
BLOOM:
It rained on and off throughout bloom. Our present expectations are for a crop larger than the 2009 crop. In looking at 2010 crop potential, we think below are considerations:
PROS (Compared with previous bloom)
- Trees came into bloom more rested (not coming off a bumper crop)
- No significant frost damage so far (big factor compared to 2009 crop, but it is still early)
- Good variety overlap in general (though with significant exceptions, in some butte/padre orchards in particular)
- More rain during winter before start of bloom
- More per acre potential due to ages of acreage vs. 2009 (young bearing trees are one year older, many older orchards removed)
- More bees set per acre, by some growers (mainly due to high almond prices and concerns about the weather)
CONS:
- Bee hours substantially lower due to intermittent rain, down about 30% for center and south areas of California, only north was similar on bee hours and this area only represents about 10-15% of the states crop
- Quicker bloom, 1-2 days faster than the previous
We believe the decline in bee hours is the most significant of the above.
OUTLOOK:
The weather in the coming months is still important to crop development. At this point, given expectations of 2009 crop carryout in the range of 200 million lbs. (roughly half of the 2008 crop carryout), we would need a crop in the range of 1.55 billion lbs. to have similar total supply for the 2010 season compared with this seasons supply. At this very early stage 1.55 seems to be on the high side of expectations, and even this scenario would not allow for shipment growth next season. The sentiment is firm on current crop, but it is too early to assess any impact from todays position report, which likely is a non-event.
The next position report is due for release April 9.