Here’s a challenge for anyone that genuinely believes this is way oversold.
Justify the current market cap using some hard numbers. I don’t care if it’s production projections or exploration projections. Put out some numbers (that include costs, capex, NPV consideration etc. ) that would demonstrate why this is currently worth $50m and also why it could be worth more down the track.
For mining projections you’d need to consider ongoing development costs to access new ore, mining dilution, haulage, recovery, grade. Also some kind of realistic resource projection.
For exploration you’d need to project from current known exploration results to come up with a vaguely realistic target resource size and grade, then look at capex (for plant., mining, development), metallurgy, strip ratio/dilution, haulage. recovery. Then profit projections over an n-year period brought back to current date NPV for that projected discovery.
My projection for mining is the longer they do it the broker they’ll get (I don’t believe cascavel will ever generate a profit).
Haven’t done anything around resource - Sertao/Antena looks like the only near term prospect with any legs but they’re a long way from proving up an economic resource.
If after 6 to 12 months of exploration they manage to drill out 50k to 100 koz of realistic mining reserve (which would mean a much larger resource) that’s still only a $20m to $50m value resource before capex. (So probably considerably less)
