"Nor, as some fantasise, is China ready to replace the US and Europe as Asia's buyer of last resort. The ADB report shows that the region itself, including China, accounts for just 22 per cent of final demand for Asian exports. In the first six months of 2009, far from taking up the slack, Chinese imports fell by a quarter.
In spite of rhetoric about the need to rebalance their economies, many Asian countries give the impression that they are waiting for western demand to return to "normal". But normal is over. Until Asian economies can create more of their own demand, their recovery will remain fragile. "
This is in response to Arkie suggesting that by 2012 we will be well into boom times. I know there are multiple views as to the economic recovery, but I think you need to be careful to think we will just rebound and return to boom times.
BuyandHold, I agree that PBG is around fair value. It's always arguable as to whether a company in PBG's position deserves a PE of 10. I guess if you believe in the economic recovery driving a return to boomtime, then you could suggest PBG is still an absolute bargain. Whereas, if you are a believer that the times of excess credit growth fuelling economic growth have probably passed, than PBG is probably pushing the upper limit of fair value.
At least you have a good grasp on the business BuyandHold.
PBG Price at posting:
$1.01 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Not Held
