My scenario is actually quite similar up the point where the 200...

My scenario is actually quite similar up the point where the 200 is tested. On the downside I think it needs to close at least one day below the 50 for one last shake out then we can decide what to do as the 200 draws into sight. Believe it or not the trip down to the 50 does represent a 10% correction which is pretty typical for a bull market but we've become used to seeing much bigger swings.