wayward's lunching with mum - friday, page-9

Totally agree Big Dad - was just thinking about this last night.

Now I am trying to not be a doom and gloom prophet and actually think we have a bright future - once the debt is worked off in 10 years or so...everything will be cheaper...

But... at the coal face it is so bad right now that I am trying to warn as many people as I can out of genuine concern...

I work for a major media company in West Sydney (one of the big two so take your pick) and work at a business to business level all day...dealing with 1000's of local businesses from the majors to one man bands...every sphere of society

I can tell you at the coal face right now small business (let alone David Jones) is in trouble. Just yesterday we talked to two retailers who are on the verge of shutting up... it is tough for most people out here...many don't talk about it but plenty do...most people are not advertising - at a meeting last week a veteran of the industry said last month was the worst in 50 years...

Problem is it appears 99% of people just don't understand why this is happening...Steve Keen is right - check out his Debt Deflation website - he has been saying this since 2005 - Neo Classical economics has a model that does not understand the role the Endogenous Money creation has in creating instability in the markets - the problem is the debt level - we have hit a wall - Australia is worse than US was before sub prime

And we are only at the apex of the top of a major debt decline - even a 10% drop in private credit could cause a severe recession as we have been going up a break neck speed for 20 years...

It appears from some comments in the media that the government and possibly even the Reserve Bank don't get it - it sounds so condescending to say that - but if they are following a Neo Classical economic model - as most of them have been taught - it is possible...more likely they do in part but don't want to scare people...and be blamed for "talking us into it"

At the end of the day IMO most people are currently looking at the wrong thing - everyone is looking at "if Greece defaults" or if "China GDP slows" - heck those events would both be bad enough in isolation - but even if we somehow avoid those situations (unlikely) - the problem is we are bleeding at the core domestically and all the focus overseas seems like a ruse to keep people unaware...

Bottom line the debt deflation in the domestic economy has been causing local business pressure for a couple of years now - you can carry on a business for so long...but at the end of the day...the dominos are going to fall...

Our private debt levels are at astronomical levels and about to fall with an aging population - so can't see much relief there in the short term...

Domestic is where the real issue is IMO - Sydney, Melboure... where the bulk of employment is - mining has been fantastic. - but it dosent employ that many people...

Lowering debt levels - less credit money - aging population is the real issue...

Lower home equity - small business failure - unemployment - lower home equity... Take your pick which comes first because IMO it is coming...