WBT Industry Related Off Topic., page-516

off topic and as such a word of caution for those feeling like now is a good time to get back in

Disinflation is temporary and inflation will return and will head higher
( hot off the press - UK just hit 10.1% inflation )
what is inflation? .... it is essentially a regressive tax that hits the lower socio demographics the hardest because it leads to inflation adjusted income ....you have far less disposable income for discretionary spending......diminishing passive cash ...ouch
the lever that addresses this is interest rates .....you know ...mortgage holders who are already at breaking point so extra work to help fund repayments disappears due to this regressive tax

Margin call bubble is at breaking point and centrally aligned with the equity / passive investment bubble
(when your equity drops below the required margin of your portfolio = deposit more funds to cover the call of get hit with fees and your positions sold by your broker......this means asset prices drop accordingly and the cycle expands rapidly.. another ouch)
options and futures are the culprit here and have been traded to the max

fun fact - more people are trading options than stocks....
margin call misery on the way

the 2yr - 10yr bond jack in the box is out and won't be put back any time soon
credit card debt bubble
pay day loan lenders bubble
buy now pay later debt bubble
student loan forgiveness bubble ( in the US worth 2 trillion on its own)
and the list goes on

the response will be further quantitative tightening with interest rate hikes absolutely guaranteed ....the sp spikes will continue as long as the passive funds remain in markets and will realise lower lows across market boards globally
while the Fed continues to tighten.....the administration keeps passing more spending bills ??? something not quite right there as this also damages the very effect the Fed is trying to achieve

The US fed also followed Australia's lead in July 2022 by redefining what unemployment actually is ......so by their new measure it is at 3%...which is a complete crock
Why is it the same here in Oz .....if you have 1 hour of work a week you are considered to be employed
yep....its true

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-17/one-hour-workers-one-hour-employment-jobs-unemployment/11118506

this sort of rubbish fed stat play skews policy and has a debilitating outcome on macro economic policy....allowing the 'party' to continue........it will ultimately add muc more pain.
Why...well we've all heard it in the past - if you are told the economy is still strong and people are not shown to be 'unemployed' monetary policy is skewed -----when our fed reserve governor said interest rates would stay low till mid to late 2023 this is the major contributing factor in that economic outlook.......and yep...it has proved to be completely incorrect

so this is also an 'employment bubble' we are in the midst of....and like the bubbles above it drastically skews monetary / fiscal policy....as such we are always playing a 5 steps behind game.....the economy has a lot more pain to deliver yet and that will burst those bubbles above..........the outcome of which is not hard to imagine

anyway

the indicators are well and truly in place for those with their eyes open really looking to see what is coming

Weebit is well placed for sure ....but not immune to what is at play as highlighted above....when these bubbles really take a hit nothing will be immune from further 'correction'

take this post any way you you feel inclined but complete your DD on the subject.....it might pay you handsomely to do so
My view is this sensational little start up has everything priced in the current SP as of now
a solid revenue deal announcement would add significant sp upside but that is still some way off

a revenue neutral announcement to facilitate new customer or new foundry adoption would have no significant up side as it is already priced in to the standing SP....IMO ( apart from an obvious spike then retrace)

these are most definitely uncertain financial times like no other
just another view for punters to consider in the investment thesis with the current uncertainty at play

( disclosure- i have not sold nor will I sell a single share of this stock .....I show no sentiment as my decisions are financially based ....not based on emotional attachment one way or the other)
glah