Shane,
From the spreadsheet of properties released 31 December 2009 when the NTA was $10.75 and adjusting for the current exchange rates, the NTA is $9.91. Exchange rates used are USD $1.105, GBP $0.6268, $1.2822
Taking out 50% of AU and NZ assets the NTA as of 31 December 2009 using current exchange rates is $7.06. This is a reduction multiple of 0.712
Assuming my calculation of current NTA being $10.50 is correct (from an earlier post) the current NTA after the de merger I expect to be $7.48 ($10.5*0.712). This does not include fees and charges associated with the de merger or any valuation changes since 30 June 2010. Fees and charges are expected to be $230mil. With an uneducated guess this might be $0.10 per share (Remembering someone at the last meeting stating that if the Lowy family took a pay cut this could give an extra 1c dividend per share).
Given a 10% to 23% premium this puts the share price at between $8.23 to $9.20 post merger.
Another way to look at it is:-
For this de merger Westfield have been using the NTA from when the exchange rates were USD$0.84, GBP$0.56, NZD$1.23. From their property valuation spreadsheet this represents a valuation error factor of 0.9218 (9.91/10.75). Taking their valuation of $11.46 (as at 30 June 2010) I would suggest that the current valuation is $10.56.
Post merger this would be $7.52 ($10.56*0.712).
Westfield exchange rate risk has significantly increased post merger.
I think there is more down side to up side with WDC until the next full and open quarterly review/valuation is held. I also acknowledge the fantastic upcoming opportunities (Stratford, Sydney City etc). Westfield management stated that Stratford?s valuation is using the cost price in the current valuation. If the AUD/GBP exchange rate has risen, I have no idea on how much this will affect the final value. Property prices there have also gone down and they are looking at selling half of it.
I would appreciate it if people have genuine calculated additions to this post would share so we can come up with a valuation that takes into account the more complicated aspects of this company.
Andrew.
Disclosure:-
This past year I have had as many as 180 000 WDC shares and own none at the moment. I have been trading shares for only 12 months.
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