CB, there are a lot of scenarios that could change the entire dynamics of a lot of case scenarios. Putin needs at the very min $42 PB.
Trump & Putins bromance is no secret, he is fully aware Putin did not start the war and now it has back fired on the very design of what the West tried to achieve.
If Trump wants to push energy prices down, it will upset his mates that put him there where he is now within the White House because of his US oligarchs and they are a lot more powerful than what TRUMP will EVER be or BECOME.
Nobody wants the Ukraine war as it is a huge thorn in the side of energy players and commodities countries alike now, completely the opposite of what they were trying to achieve.
So, Putin has already won the war, now it's all about semantics.
Ukraine is simply a pawn on a bigger chess board yet to be played out.
For 2 varying arguments, if no war, oil equivalent of $51 PB current. Opec sits an awaits war end.
Russia earns more with war with largest dark fleet in history, hence Russian surpluses in fiscal origin. For example, 438 Vessel name changes into shelfs that change on average every 72 hours !!!!
Largest draw down historically & R&D at lowest point in 53 years.
So if you can tell me definitively what price oil by design as a molecule commodity and what will it rise too and what it will fall to im all ears.
My $40 case scenario is "IF" the lines of LNG are breached and I mean "IF" then $40 will be a cheap share price for WDS.
But it's a big if because if those lines are breached then war thus far is only the beginning.
If it has not been bombed yet, chances are they will not be, but who knows.
I think it will be a year for the energy plays, but not before it still has to trough. Demand for LNG going forward will be a great deal more than what it is now, yes there is a lot of it, but nobody is spending for an eventual upstream, so the energy spike in players when it happens will be minimised and I believe by its very design.
RCMAN, I sold because it was a good trade for my holding time until I know more about what Trump will do. The fact is that NOBODY KNOWS what he will do, which is what he is very good at.
I think the retardation of O&G will be driven down harder so when he who holds the cards fold, big players like BP buy good Assets at cheap prices.
Its been going on for decades, in fact ever since oil was found has this case scenario has been played.
Its all "TIMING" of when you buy & sell and in fact how long even if you should "hold".
Its just a game.
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