went 100% cash today, don't like the bearish diversions out...

went 100% cash today, don't like the bearish diversions out there (eg ILC monthly chart)

broker snippet on the US FYI DYOR

The 12 fundamentals to focus on are as follows:

i. The US tariff war with 74 countries will raise costs of many US imports across the board.
ii. The US economy is in recession and consumer confidence is at one of the lowest points in 50years
iii. Some US industries will become unprofitable as a direct result of this
iv. The tariff war will also lead to a fall off in World Trade, which is negative for global GDP
v. The US recession will spread around the world and lead to decreased global demand forcommodities. Note the global PMI’s. Also note the plunge in the price of oil.
vi. Higher inflation in the US will mean the FED is unable to come to the recue during the economicdownturn. They will need to convince the bond market vigilantes that they are still serious aboutkeeping inflation under control. If they don’t succeed the US Treasury bonds will sell-off, and afinancial crisis could occur. Remember the US is reliant on foreign capital to fund its excessspending. Japan is leveraging their ownership of US Treasury Bonds in the Trade War discussions.
vii. The huge US fiscal deficit (6.5% of GDP) means fiscal policy will not be able to come to the rescue.
viii. The Trump administration has resulted in the largest rise in uncertainty in the history of the stockmarket. Trump and Bessent have been shown to be intellectually challenged. Given that the nextUS government only comes into power in 2029, this leaves another 4 years of potential chaos andbad economic management, which could lead to a protracted recession.
ix. The weakening of global security alliances directly raises the risk premium on stocks.
x. The fact that the US government cannot be believed anymore [with daily changes in policy aregular occurrence] directly raises the risk premium on the stock market
xi. Direct threats by Trump to fire the Chairman of the FED have raised questions about theindependence of the FED. If the market senses that the FED is no longer independent this couldlead to the collapse of the Bond market & a steep decline in stocks.
xii. Seasonal factors are now negative for the stock market until the end of October.