WDS - Tech Analysis thread, page-6

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06/09/24

A supportive factor for crude is a decrease in Russian crude exports. Weekly vessel-tracking data from Bloomberg showed Russian crude exports fell by +-25,000 bpd to 3.1 million bpd in the week to September 1. Meanwhile, increased Russian crude production is negative for oil prices after Russia's Energy Ministry reported on August 23 that Russia's July crude production was 9.045 million bpd, about 67,000 bpd above the output target it agreed to with OPEC+.

A decline in crude oil held worldwide on tankers is bullish for prices. Vortexa reported Monday that crude oil stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least seven days fell by -14% w/w to 52.99 million bbl in the week ended August 30, the lowest in 4-1/2 years.

Thursday's EIA report showed that (1) US crude oil inventories as of August 30 were -4.5% below the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were -2.2% below the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -9.5% below the 5-year seasonal average. US crude oil production in the week ending August 30 was unchanged w/w at 13.3 million bpd, falling back from the record high of 13.4 million bpd from the week of August 16.