You have a valid point of view, but I think the share price also depends on how positive the company is, and how they keep the market informed of the options available and negotiations with the banks.
2.66 Billion is currently due in April 2010, with the 1 Billion already raised, that becomes 1.8 billion due (allow some costs).
The clear options are to refinance by April 2010 (preliminary discussions with creditors could be entered into, and the market informed to sooth jittery nerves) or to raise equity in March 2010 (which could be also for shadowed).
Have the existing bankers even been approached to gauge their view? -Probably, just don't want to tell us.
Why would the share price not increase with one extra billion paid off, -when it was already increasing?
Also, remember even if motion 3. does go ahead, there will still be a debt of remaining in 2010 (300 Mill (from memory) and another 2.2 Bil in 2012.
If the SP won't reach 2.50 with half the shares and only 1.35 Bil in addition debt, what will it reach with double the shares?
Seems like a huge dilution to only half fix the debt with the share price where it is.
Huge improvement in world market confidence between now and last March, no doubt a huge improvement by next March.
I still say Vote No.
John S.
AIO Price at posting:
$1.38 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
