The math is pretty simple here, why everyone is pointing to conspiracy theories and mAnIpUlAtIoN is just clutching. US$110m cash burn last quarter in which averaged a US$185/t PLV price. This cash burn was mitigated by drawdowns on receivables (+$40m) and inventories (+$20m) and the fact they only delivered 600kt into the Stanwell powerstation vs the 750kt contracted rate (150kt x $100/t price differential is another $15m). Partially offset by elevated capex in Q1 for Mammoth & Buchanan projects (maybe -$30m).
Tally all that up and they should be on track to burn just as much as last quarter if not more (all else equal). So likely cash balance approaching <$100m USD. If the ABL lenders don’t extend the covenant waivers next week (extended to 31 May thus far) then it’s lights out. Not for the operations but likely impairing the equity.. their negotiating position is not a great one.
CRN Price at posting:
14.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
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