So much for the share price query. Apologies for the long post. Do we take their word for it or do we think the CEO and CFO are bullshit artists and for CRN it's GAME OVER?
I made a mistake re: Capex.in previous post. First quarter CAPEX was $72m Second qtr to end of April was around another $55m as per webcast so around $130m spend already On track for CAPEX guidance. Most of the expansion CAPEX has been done. They have $200m on hand as at 30 April. How much more CAPEX for the quarter do they need to spend? All costs was first quarter weighted. Almost 50% spend in first 3 months. They only have another $100m over the next 8 months to finish CAPEX spend. They have $100m in a "bucket" general bucket of $50m and equipment finance of $50m in any event. Don't need to ask noteholders consent for anything. They have budgeted on met coal price remaining at current levels and are confident that they can get to use actual cash from operations to carry on.
They have the liquidity to get through this period.
Insto's are not believing anything they say clearly. Sell sell sell it is. They get out at any price. Ask ZIP holders. Looks like at the moment CRN is still capitulating.
Type in ZIP from the above link and take a look year 2022. Insto's out at any cost. They took around 3 years from it's low to be a Disallowed by this year at its high. Still barely making a profit. Market cap $2.6billion. Yep, 2.6 billion! They were in a similar position. Needed money but they raised, didn't borrow.
With Coronado, the situation is very different. Once they get everything ironed out I expect a re-rate but also see more selling as well. They got kicked out of the S&P/ASX 200 in early March, downgraded by Fitch, S&P, maybe even Moody's. If it wasn't on the company it was also on the Notes.
It took ZIP to get to break even in 2024. Look how it got kicked out of the S&P/ASX200 and what happened. Over a period of a year it went from high 80 cents to a low of 25 cents about a year later. CRN's fate is obviosly much dire in terms of share price depreciation but similar story.
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