listen i've proven you wrong countless times here already, im...

listen i've proven you wrong countless times here already, im not going to bother responding again unless you can at least admit that. you keep pivoting and sound like a desperate person trying to justify their position.
the US -$80 -100 m per quarter figure is anchored in the companies own filings and the ratings models, not guesswork (fitch says -400m at spot) (wicet 23m per q fixed, curragh dragline 7m fixed, incremental costs 145/t, royalties and freight 7/t)
even with a drier June quarter the maths still lands around US -$80 m fcf unless coal lifts > US $210/t.

heres the long side straight from my notes, this is would you would buy the stock here imo. again, i looked at this stock to long, im not short, im trying to justify a long

-a takeover punt. emg or another white knight could lob a bid to stop the spiral and block a hostile, any offer above 40 cents would torch the shorts and double the price

a recap pop. if they land a fresh abl or convertible with light equity sweeteners the balance sheet overhang clears, ratings lift, the stock can squeeze back to >20 even if coal stays at one ninety

-royalty roll off trade. a time decay option on the stanwell royalty ending in early 27, market may start discounting that 2 years out, you ride the rerate then bail

-bond squeeze angle. sev.en finishing its note haul could yank liquidity, bond price rips, equity tracks up on the same derisking story for a fast 20% to 30%

-asset sale catalyst. dumping logan or a us prep plant for cash would slash capex and raise liquidity overnight, share price usually jumps on a non core sale
-short term btfd trade
-and lastly, your position, which is a baggie who doesnt understand what is going on just buying the dip it seems and praying.