i blocked him so cant see his messages.
a. we got trace prints for about 30 m face since april, three of those prints were 5MM plus blocks aroundt 72 c so real total could be 50 m or more, uncapped file drops maybe six months later (i think not entierly sure here) then we might see the true size, reg s trades never hit the tape, so dunno here, just guesswork.
b. sev.n only needs 100 m face to hit the 25 percent trip line which accelerates this scenario, 200m to block waivers, we do not know if they are there yet. it doesnt matter what equity wants in this scenario, theres no dilution when we go down this road, which is what the concern is about. think about it this way, sev.en buys the notes if they can get it for like 70c on the dollar and they get 50% of all the notes, a "rule" breaks in the notes, this means they now have power to demand money, a court case can be held and they can ask to take an asset, which the bonds cover for full value, so if they owned 200m of bonds and paid 70c on the dollar, they paid 140m and got a free 60m to buy the assets, loan to own. in this situation the courts force it, equity has no say because the bonds are above them
c. yea its a great observation, i dunno, maybe many people dont believe it will happen, maybe people are worried getting stuck short in suspension paying fees until its cleared up. you would also see shorts coming in before a raise to get out on, so hard to say imo
d. emg could write a bridge but that is new money behind a first lien note stack earning 9.25, they would want the same or better terms, still leaves the covenant clock ticking, emg already watched value drop from three billion to under two hundred million, they might stump up but do not count on charity
e. easiest privatisation is emg backstops a rights issue at say ten cents, wipes out the retail cap table, then uses a scheme to squeeze out the rump once they pass 90 percent, cheaper than fighting sev.en in court, but if the notes flip the assets first emg equity is already toast
also dont forget, they can buy the equity cheap, but still need to buy the notes out which is an extra 400m, they have the funds to afford it, but not enough to just yolo buy it, they need good justification.
(20min delay)