Not to speculate too much, but I have read 150m thrown around a lot, and 2032 (although I cannot remember the source for 2032 off the top of my head and may be misremembering). But the numbers add up in a nice way: 150m $usd / (1mtpa above the NCSA * 5 years) = stanwell continuing to buy at $30US per tonne. If the coal royalties drop off in 2027 per the ending of the original CSA, then this would be logical step for slowinging the prolonging of one of the two key benefits of the current agreement. I'm sure brain's bigger than mine figured this out earlier but I have not seen anyone explicitly outline such.
Having an averagee buy in price of .115 and seeing increasing coal price and management decision risks, plus a predictably bad quarterly coming (they have been blaming rain half way though) I am foreseeing a higher probability of a drop, with recent funding announcements largely digested by now. Therefore I am currently thinking of selling off part or all of my holding (roughly 20% of portfolio at buy in price).
Anyone talk me out of it? Apart from holding for another 3 weeks to move the tax to next year?
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