Renes, I appreciate your worries but I have still greater
concerns to the extent that I am now of the belief that
we have all been and are still being conned. I would like
the company to come out with a concrete statement telling
us what they are doing and what they propose to do.
These concerns arise from over a year ago when they put
out an announcement that they were going to start drilling
in June last year. This spud date came and went. The next
was a capital raising to pay for the drilling with a new
spud date by the end of last year.
whoops, they couldn't drill because they didn't have access
to the land and had to buy it. Seemed strange because they
had recruited a local expert at or about the time they
announced their first spud date.
Anyway, after a very long and protracted due diligence
process the land was purchased. Goody, now we can get
on with the drilling.
No. We have now found some seismic data which we should
purchase and reprocess. This really set my alarm bells
ringing. Why no mention of needing seismic data
prior to this and why have they just found out that it
exists. I ask myself, if someone had seismic results
then they would be worthless to them after they had
relinquished the land. I can imagine a scenario where
seismic results could infer that the site prospects
were low to zero and which would reduce the value
of the land. In this case a land seller might not
disclose that they had seismic data in order to maximise
the value that they received for the land.
If this was the case then they could gain extra value from
selling the seismic data after the land was purchased?
The alternative case is that the seismic data was good.
In this case the seller could maximise value by selling
the seismic data along with the land.
So what now? You will notice that the latest release
says that they are in the process of purchasing the
data - not they have purchased it. How much longer will
this process take? Then there is the cost of processing
it. I don't imagine that they have in-house facilities
to do this so I don't expect it to come cheap.
Okay, they buy the seismic data have it reprocessed and
reinterpreted. What then? Lets take two scenerios.
First, they find what is an excellent drill site. Although
the company has not disclosed how much land they have
purchased they do say that it is the Prabu-1 drill site
in the southwest of their lease. If this correct then
do they have to go through another protracted land buying
exercise before they can drill?
Second, if they don't find a drill site then what do they
do? Do more seismic or just say to hell with it and drill
Prabu-1?
A third alternative is to just buy the cheapest of the
new blocks currently on the market, ramp it up, do
a capital raising and then keep going.
Either which way by the time they get round to it I don't
believe they will have enough money to drill so that I
can't see any drilling any time soon
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