We have all been burned - LSF, page-65

Craig used the 6% example simply to show that the theoretical probability of achieving consistent out performance for EACH of the next four years (0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 = 0.0625 ie. 6%) equaled the number of managers who actually achieved this. He was not suggesting that only 6% of managers beat the index over the ENTIRE four year period.

I think the 40% figure mentioned is probably a reasonable estimate, Theoretically it would be 50%, but you then have to take away the high fees and other costs.

With regard to Australian based fund managers, the figures I saw a couple of years back showed that they under performed the relevant indexes on local local large caps, REITs, bonds and overseas equities, but out performed on local small caps.